Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,049,358$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,069,021.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 156.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,069,021.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $101,926$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,829.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 133.8)}}\) (asimptote \(99,829.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $162,739$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,416,039$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,512,522.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 210.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,512,522.1\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $257,671$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{247,082.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(247,082.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,524,768$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $155,658$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{150,809.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 157.3)}}\) (asimptote \(150,809.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,973$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,901.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,901.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,681$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $132,295$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{145,733.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 203.6)}}\) (asimptote \(145,733.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,641$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,805.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 196.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,805.4\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,318$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $340,731$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,570$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,513.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,513.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,846$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,249$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,683.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 224.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,683.8\))
Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $120$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,252$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $105,211$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,265.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 157.6)}}\) (asimptote \(108,265.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,869$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,863.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 139.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,863.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,726$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,722$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,184.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 144.9)}}\) (asimptote \(114,184.6\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,092$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,792.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,792.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,811$ on 2020-11-23