Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,049,358$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,069,021.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 156.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,069,021.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101,926$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,829.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 133.8)}}\) (asimptote \(99,829.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $162,739$ on 2020-11-23

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,416,039$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,512,522.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 210.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,512,522.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $257,671$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{247,082.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(247,082.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,524,768$ on 2020-11-23

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $155,658$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{150,809.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 157.3)}}\) (asimptote \(150,809.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,973$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,901.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,901.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,681$ on 2020-11-23

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $132,295$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{145,733.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 203.6)}}\) (asimptote \(145,733.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,641$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,805.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 196.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,805.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,318$ on 2020-11-23

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $340,731$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,570$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,513.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,513.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,846$ on 2020-11-23

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,249$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,683.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 224.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,683.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-11-23

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,252$ on 2020-11-23

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,211$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,265.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 157.6)}}\) (asimptote \(108,265.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,869$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,863.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 139.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,863.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,726$ on 2020-11-23

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,722$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,184.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 144.9)}}\) (asimptote \(114,184.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,092$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,792.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,792.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,811$ on 2020-11-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 81%
Cuba recovered 54%
Panama recovered 39%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,562$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,570.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,570.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,081$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,007.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 131.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,007.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,184$ on 2020-11-23

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,879$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,815.2}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 281.1)}}\) (asimptote \(19,815.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $132$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 65.3)}}\) (asimptote \(131.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $391$ on 2020-11-23